How to Win at Bookmaker’s (part 2)
So, my dear lovers of easy money, it has been a long time since we last met, much time has passed, multiple bets have been completed, and singles have been lost, but it's still the way it used to be: bookmaker's have not gone bankrupt, I have not purchased a house with a bowling alley and you continue to visit this forum. That's good.
Plenty of time has been spent on thinking hard about the source of permanent income and the thoughts have borne fruit and the strategy allowing you to make one million dollars a month has been completely developed and formed. Right, one million dollars! No, not all at once and it's not that easy, but the figure can be achieved and it's quite real.
So, let's get down to it.
I.Theory
1. Money.
Everyone needs money. All the time and a lot of it. Sometimes you might have slightly more money than you need to satisfy all your natural and other needs and you might stash this extra money away for a rainy day as savings. Others hand their fairly earned money over to the entertainment industry (carousing), while still others want start betting this money in bookmakers. That's the people we will talk about.
Handicapper Newsletters (I mean those that are considered "serious") are full of advertisements such as "stable 10% from the turnover", "not a single week of losing for the last two years". And we have no doubt that it's all true. But let's think a bit what we get out of this notorious 10%.
If we think well, it turns out that we get nothing. Indeed, nobody is interested in a mythical "turnover percent". Money is what matters, money that is _already_ in our pockets, not the account in the bookmakers. So, this means that we need a strategy (system, handicapper) that would allow us to take the money and easily spend it (save, carouse, whatever).
So, here is our first requirement for the ideal system of moneymaking in houses: "Money should be withdrawn from the account as often as possible".
2. People.
There is a lot said about the psychology of players and I will only underline the most important features (please take into account the difference between those who lose money at the bookie's and players, the former can become players and it is not that difficult):
a) Players are rational creatures and they can win in the house in the shortest period (in the current bet)
b) Players are weak creatures - cupidity, haste, laziness are characteristics of them. In the shortest period (while analyzing and making the current bet) these negative features can be overcome.
c) Players are inconstant creatures - even if they know what to do to achieve success and if they successfully do it, they feel that it is necessary to change the strategy in the long run (some kind of optimization prompted by thoughts like "I've got 15% from the turnover, why not try something else that could bring me 20%?"). If the new strategy turns out to be successful, the cycle is repeated until the moment of a tangible (vexatious, unexpected) failure and everything goes back to the normal.
So, in order to take into account the human factor, our ideal moneymaking system must use the advantages of the shortest period when the player can pull himself together and make the best decision. The system must not be ordinary either, that is, using it must not be a routine. As an option, there should be big losses (!) that could cause a stir in the player and stimulate his analytical abilities.
3. Figures
And here's some figures...
1.4*1.4 ~ 2
1.4*1.5*1.4 ~ 3
1.8*1.75 ~ 3
1.8*1.4*1.4*1.8*1.5 ~ 10
0.8^2 ~ 3/5
0.8^4 ~ 2/5
0.8^5 ~ 1/3
These figures show that you have to guess two evident favorites for 1.4 to double the bank (in theory, if you stake everything), three evident favorites or two non-evident favorites to triple the bank, to increase it tenfold (impressive!) it is enough to guess five matches. Below you can see the probabilities of these guesses supposing that the probability of the correct outcome is 80% (no questions so far, read on).
Let us test the following strategy with known parameters:
Bank: 1000
Goal: 2000
Bet: 50% of the bank
Odds: 1.5
Probability: 4/5 (80%)
Since the average of distribution is positive, theoretically we cannot lose if we use this strategy. But another question is interesting: how often will we achieve the goal? Suppose we win all the time...
0. 1000
1. 1000 + 0.5*500 = 1250
2. 1250 + 0.5*625 = 1562
3. 1562 + 0.5*781 = 1952
Three bets. Each unsuccessful bet must be followed by three successful ones to get the position back, suppose we lose the first bet.
The probability of success in three bets out of three bets is 1/2, one failure in four bets ~ 10%, the rest is already a minus (please note that the minus is not equal to the bank. As a rule, it will not be larger than half the bank, 2/3 of the bank in really rare cases!).
In a word, _theoretically_ the specified parameters allow us to have about 60% of successful bets and 40% when we partially lose the bank. It is all perfect in theory but what about practice?
II. Practice
The first and most necessary condition is maximizing the odds. It is extremely difficult to use the offered strategy optimizing the odds by houses that is why we need either a house with _high_ odds for tennis (Pinnaclesports) or a betting exchange (BetFair) as an alternative.
The second condition is the correct bet analysis. There are a lot of factors in the analysis of tennis matches, some of them should be taken into account while others should not. Let's analyze this some more...
Analysis of tennis matches.
The analysis is divided into two stages: primary and detailed. The aim of the primary analysis is to exclude all matches where the probability that one of the players wins is less than 80%. The aim of the secondary analysis is to make sure that this probability is actually that high.
Methods of the primary analysis.
1. Matches for the last month are analyzed. In the case where there are none, it is obviously hard to determine the probability and the match is skipped.
2. The match must be between a strong (or stable) tennis player and a weak tennis player. Strength and weakness are not determined by the player's rating, or his tournament history, or personal encounters, or his balance on this covering - by none of the averaged statistical factors, but by how well and with whom the tennis player has been playing RECENTLY. I repeat once again that if he has not played with anyone, his status is considered unknown and the match is skipped.
Weak tennis players are off form (most profitable), or are recovering after an injury, or they are just of low class. Their main feature is that they lose. And they lose when they play with strong players losing some of their serves. Such set scores as 2-6, 1-6 are quite frequent. They do not stand a good chance with stable players as well, but sometimes they manage to get into a fight. A defeat with the score of 6-4, 6-3 (7-5, 6-2) is indicative. They play in a strained manner with such players as themselves, sometimes they win (6-4, 7-5), sometimes they lose no matter the score. The main criteria for considering a player as weak is slashing defeats from strong players, defeats from stable players and alternative success with weak players.
Stable tennis players are either players who are in good form, but do not have a lot of mastery or great players of the world who are recovering at the moment. They quite easily defeat weak players and (required!) resist strong tennis players and sometimes defeat them! They play unpredictably with those who are equal to them. The results of matches between two stable tennis players do not carry any additional information for the analysis.
Strong tennis players confidently defeat ALL weak players as well as most stable players. They lose only to equal players and mostly in a good fight. Constant defeats from strong players by about -6 demonstrate going to the lower class of stable players.
The main problem is that the analysis of one player means the analysis of everyone he was playing with the last month because you have to know how strong each player is to determine the strength of this particular player. We should note that it is dangerous to rely on your own judgements and knowledge about players in this case because such judgements get out of date quickly. It may take literally one month for a strong player to become a stable one and to become a weak one in another month. So, do not be lazy, make sure to check everything fully.
Note that any ONE particular match can have any result. That is why you must not make any conclusions based on the result of ONE match - there must be at least two of them. For example, a weak player defeats a strong player in the first round or the result of the match does not correspond to our gradation of players at all. This does not mean that this player also became a weak one. He just temporarily gets into the category of unknown players and you must not bet on him (against him) until it is clear what happened in that match: whether it was the lower probability, whether it was an intended defeat (for some reason), or whether the player's strength has changed.
Of course, statistics of matches, stenography (if any) might be quite useful during the analysis. For example, let's consider the score of 7-5 as a simple victory, not a confident one, but a simple one. And if the player wins 7-5, 7-5, we just consider that he has done his job. However, if we find out that he lost three of his serves, the match at once becomes "between weak players" instead of "between equal players". In the first place, you should pay attention to the percentage of the first serve together with the percentage of points won during the first serve. It characterizes the quality of serves. The difference between the percentage of points won during the first and second serves characterizes how strongly the player depends on his own serve. It is worth betting on players who completely depend on their own serve ONLY if their opponents cannot serve normally. Since serves may just "not work", it leads to breaks and consequently to a lost match. The number of lost breaks must be moderate, not more than 1.33 in one set...the percentage of points won when receiving a serve must not be less than 30, although you should see here how good the opponent's serve is so do not pay much attention to it. And, of course, the number of double faults - if it is large and the percentage of points won during the first serve is not large, it is a definite sign of weakness!
During the analysis of the statistics, the most important thing is to learn to see a live match behind the numbers, to understand that double faults can be the result of bad serves (and that's a minus) or they can be the result of the wish to win each point (that's a plus). It is impossible (or extremely difficult) to teach it that is why we leave it for homework to get to understand the logics of tennis.
So, after looking through all matches, you choose several (usually, there are not many) matches where a strong (or stable) player meets with a weak one. Now you should make the best choice!
Methods of the secondary analysis:
This is easy. You should try to exclude "non-playing" factors, such as tiredness (although it's different for different players), the unwillingness to participate in the tournament and the movements of odds.
The threshold when one starts to feel tired because of the recently played matches is different for everyone. You should carefully see how the tennis player felt after having played one or two weeks during the last several years. If there were no such series, he gets easily tired and it means that he cannot play tennis well for long, but if there were successful series, everything is okay.
You can notice the unwillingness to participate in a tournament when, for example, the player does not apply for doubles (for those players who often play doubles), or when the player does not apply for a tournament with larger prizes in the next week, or when the player does not apply for a tournament where the player was successful the previous year (proving his rating). Other personal factors belong to this group as well (weddings, birthdays, new coaches, etc.)
The movements of odds are monitored on betting exchanges and on all kinds of services monitoring changes in the lines. The only important issue here is to learn to ignore _fluctuations_ of the lines. As a rule, a 5-point change means only a large bet, there is no other information in it. Pay attention only to changes that are about 30% of the pure odds. Besides, learn to tell the difference between "fork" movements (when the odds in the house were initially different from the world odds or from those in other houses and money is just bet on forks) and "analytical" movements (when the odds change depending on the bets on the outcome whose probability is higher than bookmakers think, which means some information unknown to us that is out there and is most probably quite important!)
I've created a list of the most typical pitfalls and mistakes during an analysis that can be avoided. The bet you choose must correspond to EACH of these conditions:
1) BOTH PLAYERS MUST HAVE TAKEN PART IN SEVERAL MATCHES IN THE LAST TWO OR THREE WEEKS.
2) A WEAK PLAYER MUST NOT HAVE EASY VICTORIES OVER STRONG AND STABLE PLAYERS.
3) YOU MUST NOT ANALYZE A MATCH THAT IS GOING TO BEGIN IN HALF AN HOUR (only killing fleas requires haste)
4) YOU MUST NOT BET ON ODDS THAT ARE TOO LOW (LOWER THAN 1.15). (You will never be able to feel the difference between the probability of 90% when the bet is justified for 1.15 and the probability of 85% when it is not.)
5) NO MULTIPLE BETS (reasons later)
So, once you check for pitfalls, you can get down to the most important thing - making bets!
The third condition of using the strategy successfully is calmness and cold bloodedness (that's how it is!). We have a plan, we have methods of analysis and we must follow them in any case.
Our strategy is as follows. We must try to double the bank in one week. That is, if we have 100 dollars on Monday, we must have 200 dollars on Sunday. There should not be any haste - if you happen to have 400 dollars at a certain moment, you must withdraw the "unneeded" 200 dollars and spend the money. The bank gets doubled by bets of half the bank. You need to guess 3-4 matches in order to double the bank successfully. In a week. It is more than real. The main thing is not to rush. Just feel it, that once you double the bank this week, you will double it next week as well, and the week after that, and so on. 16 times in a month. Almost 200 times in two months. The only thing you need is to not be nervous, not to worry, not to give up on your goal, while three or four matches with a probability of 80% are sure to be out there each week! Actually, there are even more of them than that. Realize it - it is easy to win, it's all about patience and timing! Your ATP tour will remain there and it will be there in a year and in ten years. So, if you find nothing today, shut down the computer and just do something else in order to apply new efforts to analyzing the next round tomorrow. The main thing is to remember that our goal is not a great number of made bets, but a high probability (80%).
And how about a million in a month, you ask? Easy :) A million is 30 thousand dollars. Suppose you have 200 dollars, then you can make about 2000 in one month. $20000 in two months. After that, just start each new week with the bank of $15000 - two weeks will be successful, one will bring nothing and one will be a small minus. In total, it is about 30000 per month and so on. Remember that the most important thing is patience and care while choosing bets and the rest will take care of itself.
betfair
Plenty of time has been spent on thinking hard about the source of permanent income and the thoughts have borne fruit and the strategy allowing you to make one million dollars a month has been completely developed and formed. Right, one million dollars! No, not all at once and it's not that easy, but the figure can be achieved and it's quite real.
So, let's get down to it.
I.Theory
1. Money.
Everyone needs money. All the time and a lot of it. Sometimes you might have slightly more money than you need to satisfy all your natural and other needs and you might stash this extra money away for a rainy day as savings. Others hand their fairly earned money over to the entertainment industry (carousing), while still others want start betting this money in bookmakers. That's the people we will talk about.
Handicapper Newsletters (I mean those that are considered "serious") are full of advertisements such as "stable 10% from the turnover", "not a single week of losing for the last two years". And we have no doubt that it's all true. But let's think a bit what we get out of this notorious 10%.
If we think well, it turns out that we get nothing. Indeed, nobody is interested in a mythical "turnover percent". Money is what matters, money that is _already_ in our pockets, not the account in the bookmakers. So, this means that we need a strategy (system, handicapper) that would allow us to take the money and easily spend it (save, carouse, whatever).
So, here is our first requirement for the ideal system of moneymaking in houses: "Money should be withdrawn from the account as often as possible".
2. People.
There is a lot said about the psychology of players and I will only underline the most important features (please take into account the difference between those who lose money at the bookie's and players, the former can become players and it is not that difficult):
a) Players are rational creatures and they can win in the house in the shortest period (in the current bet)
b) Players are weak creatures - cupidity, haste, laziness are characteristics of them. In the shortest period (while analyzing and making the current bet) these negative features can be overcome.
c) Players are inconstant creatures - even if they know what to do to achieve success and if they successfully do it, they feel that it is necessary to change the strategy in the long run (some kind of optimization prompted by thoughts like "I've got 15% from the turnover, why not try something else that could bring me 20%?"). If the new strategy turns out to be successful, the cycle is repeated until the moment of a tangible (vexatious, unexpected) failure and everything goes back to the normal.
So, in order to take into account the human factor, our ideal moneymaking system must use the advantages of the shortest period when the player can pull himself together and make the best decision. The system must not be ordinary either, that is, using it must not be a routine. As an option, there should be big losses (!) that could cause a stir in the player and stimulate his analytical abilities.
3. Figures
And here's some figures...
1.4*1.4 ~ 2
1.4*1.5*1.4 ~ 3
1.8*1.75 ~ 3
1.8*1.4*1.4*1.8*1.5 ~ 10
0.8^2 ~ 3/5
0.8^4 ~ 2/5
0.8^5 ~ 1/3
These figures show that you have to guess two evident favorites for 1.4 to double the bank (in theory, if you stake everything), three evident favorites or two non-evident favorites to triple the bank, to increase it tenfold (impressive!) it is enough to guess five matches. Below you can see the probabilities of these guesses supposing that the probability of the correct outcome is 80% (no questions so far, read on).
Let us test the following strategy with known parameters:
Bank: 1000
Goal: 2000
Bet: 50% of the bank
Odds: 1.5
Probability: 4/5 (80%)
Since the average of distribution is positive, theoretically we cannot lose if we use this strategy. But another question is interesting: how often will we achieve the goal? Suppose we win all the time...
0. 1000
1. 1000 + 0.5*500 = 1250
2. 1250 + 0.5*625 = 1562
3. 1562 + 0.5*781 = 1952
Three bets. Each unsuccessful bet must be followed by three successful ones to get the position back, suppose we lose the first bet.
The probability of success in three bets out of three bets is 1/2, one failure in four bets ~ 10%, the rest is already a minus (please note that the minus is not equal to the bank. As a rule, it will not be larger than half the bank, 2/3 of the bank in really rare cases!).
In a word, _theoretically_ the specified parameters allow us to have about 60% of successful bets and 40% when we partially lose the bank. It is all perfect in theory but what about practice?
II. Practice
The first and most necessary condition is maximizing the odds. It is extremely difficult to use the offered strategy optimizing the odds by houses that is why we need either a house with _high_ odds for tennis (Pinnaclesports) or a betting exchange (BetFair) as an alternative.
The second condition is the correct bet analysis. There are a lot of factors in the analysis of tennis matches, some of them should be taken into account while others should not. Let's analyze this some more...
Analysis of tennis matches.
The analysis is divided into two stages: primary and detailed. The aim of the primary analysis is to exclude all matches where the probability that one of the players wins is less than 80%. The aim of the secondary analysis is to make sure that this probability is actually that high.
Methods of the primary analysis.
1. Matches for the last month are analyzed. In the case where there are none, it is obviously hard to determine the probability and the match is skipped.
2. The match must be between a strong (or stable) tennis player and a weak tennis player. Strength and weakness are not determined by the player's rating, or his tournament history, or personal encounters, or his balance on this covering - by none of the averaged statistical factors, but by how well and with whom the tennis player has been playing RECENTLY. I repeat once again that if he has not played with anyone, his status is considered unknown and the match is skipped.
Weak tennis players are off form (most profitable), or are recovering after an injury, or they are just of low class. Their main feature is that they lose. And they lose when they play with strong players losing some of their serves. Such set scores as 2-6, 1-6 are quite frequent. They do not stand a good chance with stable players as well, but sometimes they manage to get into a fight. A defeat with the score of 6-4, 6-3 (7-5, 6-2) is indicative. They play in a strained manner with such players as themselves, sometimes they win (6-4, 7-5), sometimes they lose no matter the score. The main criteria for considering a player as weak is slashing defeats from strong players, defeats from stable players and alternative success with weak players.
Stable tennis players are either players who are in good form, but do not have a lot of mastery or great players of the world who are recovering at the moment. They quite easily defeat weak players and (required!) resist strong tennis players and sometimes defeat them! They play unpredictably with those who are equal to them. The results of matches between two stable tennis players do not carry any additional information for the analysis.
Strong tennis players confidently defeat ALL weak players as well as most stable players. They lose only to equal players and mostly in a good fight. Constant defeats from strong players by about -6 demonstrate going to the lower class of stable players.
The main problem is that the analysis of one player means the analysis of everyone he was playing with the last month because you have to know how strong each player is to determine the strength of this particular player. We should note that it is dangerous to rely on your own judgements and knowledge about players in this case because such judgements get out of date quickly. It may take literally one month for a strong player to become a stable one and to become a weak one in another month. So, do not be lazy, make sure to check everything fully.
Note that any ONE particular match can have any result. That is why you must not make any conclusions based on the result of ONE match - there must be at least two of them. For example, a weak player defeats a strong player in the first round or the result of the match does not correspond to our gradation of players at all. This does not mean that this player also became a weak one. He just temporarily gets into the category of unknown players and you must not bet on him (against him) until it is clear what happened in that match: whether it was the lower probability, whether it was an intended defeat (for some reason), or whether the player's strength has changed.
Of course, statistics of matches, stenography (if any) might be quite useful during the analysis. For example, let's consider the score of 7-5 as a simple victory, not a confident one, but a simple one. And if the player wins 7-5, 7-5, we just consider that he has done his job. However, if we find out that he lost three of his serves, the match at once becomes "between weak players" instead of "between equal players". In the first place, you should pay attention to the percentage of the first serve together with the percentage of points won during the first serve. It characterizes the quality of serves. The difference between the percentage of points won during the first and second serves characterizes how strongly the player depends on his own serve. It is worth betting on players who completely depend on their own serve ONLY if their opponents cannot serve normally. Since serves may just "not work", it leads to breaks and consequently to a lost match. The number of lost breaks must be moderate, not more than 1.33 in one set...the percentage of points won when receiving a serve must not be less than 30, although you should see here how good the opponent's serve is so do not pay much attention to it. And, of course, the number of double faults - if it is large and the percentage of points won during the first serve is not large, it is a definite sign of weakness!
During the analysis of the statistics, the most important thing is to learn to see a live match behind the numbers, to understand that double faults can be the result of bad serves (and that's a minus) or they can be the result of the wish to win each point (that's a plus). It is impossible (or extremely difficult) to teach it that is why we leave it for homework to get to understand the logics of tennis.
So, after looking through all matches, you choose several (usually, there are not many) matches where a strong (or stable) player meets with a weak one. Now you should make the best choice!
Methods of the secondary analysis:
This is easy. You should try to exclude "non-playing" factors, such as tiredness (although it's different for different players), the unwillingness to participate in the tournament and the movements of odds.
The threshold when one starts to feel tired because of the recently played matches is different for everyone. You should carefully see how the tennis player felt after having played one or two weeks during the last several years. If there were no such series, he gets easily tired and it means that he cannot play tennis well for long, but if there were successful series, everything is okay.
You can notice the unwillingness to participate in a tournament when, for example, the player does not apply for doubles (for those players who often play doubles), or when the player does not apply for a tournament with larger prizes in the next week, or when the player does not apply for a tournament where the player was successful the previous year (proving his rating). Other personal factors belong to this group as well (weddings, birthdays, new coaches, etc.)
The movements of odds are monitored on betting exchanges and on all kinds of services monitoring changes in the lines. The only important issue here is to learn to ignore _fluctuations_ of the lines. As a rule, a 5-point change means only a large bet, there is no other information in it. Pay attention only to changes that are about 30% of the pure odds. Besides, learn to tell the difference between "fork" movements (when the odds in the house were initially different from the world odds or from those in other houses and money is just bet on forks) and "analytical" movements (when the odds change depending on the bets on the outcome whose probability is higher than bookmakers think, which means some information unknown to us that is out there and is most probably quite important!)
I've created a list of the most typical pitfalls and mistakes during an analysis that can be avoided. The bet you choose must correspond to EACH of these conditions:
1) BOTH PLAYERS MUST HAVE TAKEN PART IN SEVERAL MATCHES IN THE LAST TWO OR THREE WEEKS.
2) A WEAK PLAYER MUST NOT HAVE EASY VICTORIES OVER STRONG AND STABLE PLAYERS.
3) YOU MUST NOT ANALYZE A MATCH THAT IS GOING TO BEGIN IN HALF AN HOUR (only killing fleas requires haste)
4) YOU MUST NOT BET ON ODDS THAT ARE TOO LOW (LOWER THAN 1.15). (You will never be able to feel the difference between the probability of 90% when the bet is justified for 1.15 and the probability of 85% when it is not.)
5) NO MULTIPLE BETS (reasons later)
So, once you check for pitfalls, you can get down to the most important thing - making bets!
The third condition of using the strategy successfully is calmness and cold bloodedness (that's how it is!). We have a plan, we have methods of analysis and we must follow them in any case.
Our strategy is as follows. We must try to double the bank in one week. That is, if we have 100 dollars on Monday, we must have 200 dollars on Sunday. There should not be any haste - if you happen to have 400 dollars at a certain moment, you must withdraw the "unneeded" 200 dollars and spend the money. The bank gets doubled by bets of half the bank. You need to guess 3-4 matches in order to double the bank successfully. In a week. It is more than real. The main thing is not to rush. Just feel it, that once you double the bank this week, you will double it next week as well, and the week after that, and so on. 16 times in a month. Almost 200 times in two months. The only thing you need is to not be nervous, not to worry, not to give up on your goal, while three or four matches with a probability of 80% are sure to be out there each week! Actually, there are even more of them than that. Realize it - it is easy to win, it's all about patience and timing! Your ATP tour will remain there and it will be there in a year and in ten years. So, if you find nothing today, shut down the computer and just do something else in order to apply new efforts to analyzing the next round tomorrow. The main thing is to remember that our goal is not a great number of made bets, but a high probability (80%).
And how about a million in a month, you ask? Easy :) A million is 30 thousand dollars. Suppose you have 200 dollars, then you can make about 2000 in one month. $20000 in two months. After that, just start each new week with the bank of $15000 - two weeks will be successful, one will bring nothing and one will be a small minus. In total, it is about 30000 per month and so on. Remember that the most important thing is patience and care while choosing bets and the rest will take care of itself.
betfair
posted by Stitch at
7:06 PM
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